JK7D1已成熟
33个完整业务日 · 2026-03-01–04-19
33个已验证完整日
配对首充252,862D1 64,163人 · 25.37%
赢家 / 输家20.38% / 78.43%排除组 1.19%
输家 D1 20.42%赢家 D1 44.80%
赢家−输家 +24.38pp
五组一眼对比
赢家/输家均以当日最终净输赢正负分组；打平、未投注及结果不完整不进入赢输差。
Ba6D1已成熟
2026-05-31–06-21
22个完整日
配对首充72,277D1 16,997人 · 23.52%
赢家 / 输家15.36% / 62.84%排除组 21.80%
输家 D1 17.58%赢家 D1 41.43%
赢家−输家 +23.86pp
WWJ 6/14–6/21D1已成熟
2026-06-14–06-21
8个成熟首充日
配对首充11,015D1 1,971人 · 17.89%
赢家 / 输家17.92% / 78.99%排除组 3.09%
输家 D1 13.75%赢家 D1 37.79%
赢家−输家 +24.05pp
WWJ 8/2–8/9D1已成熟
2026-08-02–08-09
8个成熟首充日
配对首充5,434D1 1,180人 · 21.72%
赢家 / 输家18.95% / 78.95%排除组 2.10%
输家 D1 19.67%赢家 D1 32.33%
赢家−输家 +12.66pp
WWJ 8/10–8/12成熟子集
请求窗口 2026-08-10–08-12
正式配对仅用8/10成熟cohort
配对首充934D1 233人 · 24.95%
赢家 / 输家21.73% / 77.30%排除组 0.96%
输家 D1 19.11%赢家 D1 46.80%
赢家−输家 +27.68pp
先看三个结论
这三点概括了跨周期的主要变化，下方热力图可回查到每一档。
赢家减输家差值为 12.66–27.68pp；这是稳定的观察关联，不是因果证明。
相比6月14–21日，输家D1从 13.75% 升至 19.67%，赢家从 37.79% 降至 32.33%，差值由 24.05pp 降至 12.66pp。
输家D1为 19.11%，相差 27.68pp。但该组正式样本仅为8/10单日 934人，不可代表完整8/10–12。
当日输赢结构
每条的100%是该系列的正式配对首充用户。左右数字分别为亏损与盈利用户占比。
亏损打平盈利未投注/结果不完整
JK7252,862人
78.4%20.4%
Ba672,277人
62.8%15.4%
WWJ 6月11,015人
79.0%17.9%
WWJ 8/2–95,434人
78.9%19.0%
WWJ 8/10–12934人
77.3%21.7%
输赢档 × D1热力图
切换看每档D1再充率或该档用户占比；颜色越深表示数值越高。
| 当日输赢/充值 | JK7 | Ba6 | WWJ 6月 | WWJ 8/2–9 | WWJ 8/10–12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 亏损≥100% | 20.02%23,373/116,749 | 16.04%4,104/25,583 | 14.07%729/5,183 | 20.02%526/2,627 | 21.05%88/418 |
| 亏80–100% | 15.83%9,615/60,750 | 12.22%1,634/13,373 | 9.44%253/2,681 | 14.80%145/980 | 10.05%19/189 |
| 亏60–80% | 32.77%1,310/3,998 | 30.37%400/1,317 | 21.11%38/180 | 21.17%29/137 | 34.78%8/23 |
| 亏40–60% | 36.22%1,766/4,876 | 36.04%678/1,881 | 26.39%57/216 | 24.86%45/181 | 23.33%7/30 |
| 亏20–40% | 36.71%1,953/5,320 | 36.87%570/1,546 | 26.37%53/201 | 26.52%48/181 | 19.05%4/21 |
| 亏0–20% | 37.36%2,475/6,625 | 34.67%597/1,722 | 27.50%66/240 | 27.72%51/184 | 29.27%12/41 |
| 打平 | 34.48%20/58 | 11.76%2/17 | 0.00%0/1 | 0.00%0/2 | —0/0 |
| 赢0–20% | 41.20%1,838/4,461 | 38.92%395/1,015 | 27.44%45/164 | 24.32%27/111 | 40.00%8/20 |
| 赢20–40% | 44.10%1,997/4,528 | 42.03%435/1,035 | 35.43%62/175 | 32.08%34/106 | 62.50%10/16 |
| 赢40–60% | 42.57%1,748/4,106 | 41.38%401/969 | 34.97%64/183 | 33.75%27/80 | 38.89%7/18 |
| 赢60–80% | 44.18%1,673/3,787 | 41.62%340/817 | 36.84%49/133 | 31.82%28/88 | 46.15%6/13 |
| 赢80–100% | 38.93%2,107/5,412 | 35.22%416/1,181 | 32.31%63/195 | 31.09%37/119 | 58.33%14/24 |
| 赢≥100% | 46.93%13,721/29,237 | 42.94%2,613/6,085 | 41.19%463/1,124 | 34.22%180/526 | 44.64%50/112 |
| 未投注 | 19.19%567/2,955 | 28.04%4,412/15,736 | 8.55%29/339 | 2.68%3/112 | 0.00%0/9 |
| 结果不完整 | —0/0 | —0/0 | —0/0 | —0/0 | —0/0 |
完整分档明细
每档给出分母、分子和留存率，可直接回查热力图。
| 输赢档 | 用户 | 占比 | D1再充 | D1留存 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 亏损≥100% | 116,749 | 46.17% | 23,373 | 20.02% |
| 亏80–100% | 60,750 | 24.02% | 9,615 | 15.83% |
| 亏60–80% | 3,998 | 1.58% | 1,310 | 32.77% |
| 亏40–60% | 4,876 | 1.93% | 1,766 | 36.22% |
| 亏20–40% | 5,320 | 2.10% | 1,953 | 36.71% |
| 亏0–20% | 6,625 | 2.62% | 2,475 | 37.36% |
| 打平 | 58 | 0.02% | 20 | 34.48% |
| 赢0–20% | 4,461 | 1.76% | 1,838 | 41.20% |
| 赢20–40% | 4,528 | 1.79% | 1,997 | 44.10% |
| 赢40–60% | 4,106 | 1.62% | 1,748 | 42.57% |
| 赢60–80% | 3,787 | 1.50% | 1,673 | 44.18% |
| 赢80–100% | 5,412 | 2.14% | 2,107 | 38.93% |
| 赢≥100% | 29,237 | 11.56% | 13,721 | 46.93% |
| 未投注 | 2,955 | 1.17% | 567 | 19.19% |
| 结果不完整 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | — |
| 输赢档 | 用户 | 占比 | D1再充 | D1留存 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 亏损≥100% | 25,583 | 35.40% | 4,104 | 16.04% |
| 亏80–100% | 13,373 | 18.50% | 1,634 | 12.22% |
| 亏60–80% | 1,317 | 1.82% | 400 | 30.37% |
| 亏40–60% | 1,881 | 2.60% | 678 | 36.04% |
| 亏20–40% | 1,546 | 2.14% | 570 | 36.87% |
| 亏0–20% | 1,722 | 2.38% | 597 | 34.67% |
| 打平 | 17 | 0.02% | 2 | 11.76% |
| 赢0–20% | 1,015 | 1.40% | 395 | 38.92% |
| 赢20–40% | 1,035 | 1.43% | 435 | 42.03% |
| 赢40–60% | 969 | 1.34% | 401 | 41.38% |
| 赢60–80% | 817 | 1.13% | 340 | 41.62% |
| 赢80–100% | 1,181 | 1.63% | 416 | 35.22% |
| 赢≥100% | 6,085 | 8.42% | 2,613 | 42.94% |
| 未投注 | 15,736 | 21.77% | 4,412 | 28.04% |
| 结果不完整 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | — |
| 输赢档 | 用户 | 占比 | D1再充 | D1留存 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 亏损≥100% | 5,183 | 47.05% | 729 | 14.07% |
| 亏80–100% | 2,681 | 24.34% | 253 | 9.44% |
| 亏60–80% | 180 | 1.63% | 38 | 21.11% |
| 亏40–60% | 216 | 1.96% | 57 | 26.39% |
| 亏20–40% | 201 | 1.82% | 53 | 26.37% |
| 亏0–20% | 240 | 2.18% | 66 | 27.50% |
| 打平 | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 赢0–20% | 164 | 1.49% | 45 | 27.44% |
| 赢20–40% | 175 | 1.59% | 62 | 35.43% |
| 赢40–60% | 183 | 1.66% | 64 | 34.97% |
| 赢60–80% | 133 | 1.21% | 49 | 36.84% |
| 赢80–100% | 195 | 1.77% | 63 | 32.31% |
| 赢≥100% | 1,124 | 10.20% | 463 | 41.19% |
| 未投注 | 339 | 3.08% | 29 | 8.55% |
| 结果不完整 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | — |
| 输赢档 | 用户 | 占比 | D1再充 | D1留存 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 亏损≥100% | 2,627 | 48.34% | 526 | 20.02% |
| 亏80–100% | 980 | 18.03% | 145 | 14.80% |
| 亏60–80% | 137 | 2.52% | 29 | 21.17% |
| 亏40–60% | 181 | 3.33% | 45 | 24.86% |
| 亏20–40% | 181 | 3.33% | 48 | 26.52% |
| 亏0–20% | 184 | 3.39% | 51 | 27.72% |
| 打平 | 2 | 0.04% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 赢0–20% | 111 | 2.04% | 27 | 24.32% |
| 赢20–40% | 106 | 1.95% | 34 | 32.08% |
| 赢40–60% | 80 | 1.47% | 27 | 33.75% |
| 赢60–80% | 88 | 1.62% | 28 | 31.82% |
| 赢80–100% | 119 | 2.19% | 37 | 31.09% |
| 赢≥100% | 526 | 9.68% | 180 | 34.22% |
| 未投注 | 112 | 2.06% | 3 | 2.68% |
| 结果不完整 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | — |
| 输赢档 | 用户 | 占比 | D1再充 | D1留存 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 亏损≥100% | 418 | 44.75% | 88 | 21.05% |
| 亏80–100% | 189 | 20.24% | 19 | 10.05% |
| 亏60–80% | 23 | 2.46% | 8 | 34.78% |
| 亏40–60% | 30 | 3.21% | 7 | 23.33% |
| 亏20–40% | 21 | 2.25% | 4 | 19.05% |
| 亏0–20% | 41 | 4.39% | 12 | 29.27% |
| 打平 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | — |
| 赢0–20% | 20 | 2.14% | 8 | 40.00% |
| 赢20–40% | 16 | 1.71% | 10 | 62.50% |
| 赢40–60% | 18 | 1.93% | 7 | 38.89% |
| 赢60–80% | 13 | 1.39% | 6 | 46.15% |
| 赢80–100% | 24 | 2.57% | 14 | 58.33% |
| 赢≥100% | 112 | 11.99% | 50 | 44.64% |
| 未投注 | 9 | 0.96% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 结果不完整 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | — |
成熟性与阅读边界
8月10–12日不能三天直接合并发布D1：当前工作区的8月12日数据只到12:51左右，且没有8月13日数据。
✓ 主图如何保持可比
- JK7、Ba6和WWJ 6月/8月2–9日均使用D0、D1完整的首充cohort。
- WWJ 8月10–12日主图只使用8月10日cohort；8月11日临时值和8月12日部分数据只在右表披露。
- 未成熟不填0，也不与正式样本混合。
- 跨平台窗口不同，绝对高低只作方向参考；平台内各输赢档更适合比较。
输赢档是事后结果分层，同时受打码深度、首充金额、同日复充和用户自选择影响；本页不支持“让用户赢/输就会提升留存”的因果结论。
WWJ指定日逐日覆盖
| 首充日 | D0首充 | D1再充 | D1留存 | 状态 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | 946 | 192 | 20.30% | 成熟正式可比 |
| 2026-08-03 | 1,310 | 278 | 21.22% | 成熟正式可比 |
| 2026-08-04 | 616 | 125 | 20.29% | 成熟正式可比 |
| 2026-08-05 | 469 | 107 | 22.81% | 成熟正式可比 |
| 2026-08-06 | 473 | 108 | 22.83% | 成熟正式可比 |
| 2026-08-07 | 358 | 74 | 20.67% | 成熟正式可比 |
| 2026-08-08 | 663 | 146 | 22.02% | 成熟正式可比 |
| 2026-08-09 | 599 | 150 | 25.04% | 成熟正式可比 |
| 2026-08-10 | 934 | 233 | 24.95% | 成熟正式可比 |
| 2026-08-11 | 1,087 | 147 | 13.52% | 临时D1仅观察至8/12 12:51，不进入主图 |
| 2026-08-12 | 331 | — | — | D0部分/D1无数据8/12本身也是半日数据，不进入主图 |